By David M. Kinchen
Freelance Writer and NAREE Past President
"Data without context is noise," said Walter Molony of the National Association of Realtors in his session "Data Drilldown" at the NAREE conference on Thursday, June 3. Seasoned reporters are familiar with Molony's data, both leading and lagging indicators, from NAR and other sources. Billed as a session for both veterans and newcomers, Molony's "How to Learning Lab" was designed to help journalists sift through the numbers at a faster clip.
A good example of misleading numbers came out on Friday, June 4, with the release of job creation data by the Department of Labor. The good news: the gain of 431,000 jobs in May was hailed by President Obama as a sign the U.S. economy is getting stronger. The bad news is that 411,000 of those jobs were temporary workers hired for the 2010 Census. U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in May, just 41,000 -- compared with 218,000 in April.
Mike Inselmann of Metrostudy provided context at a Thursday, June 3 session on the mid-year outlook for home building. Without jobs there is no home buying, he pointed out, noting that there was a whopping one million fewer workers in the U.S. economy at the end of 2009 compared with the end of 1999. He called it the "Lost Decade" and added more context by commenting on the lack of a boom and bust cycle in Texas, especially compared with California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.
The fundamentally sound and diversified economy of the Lone Star State -- the second most populous after California -- added a million jobs in the Lost Decade, contributing to the no-bubble housing markets of every metropolitan area in Texas, including Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin. Inselmann is president and co-founder of Metrostudy, which covers more than 40 markets in 16 states, giving it a broad perspective.
On the panel with Inselmann was Chris Werth of the Pulte Group, the nation's largest residential builder. He reinforced Inselmann's description of the relatively sound Texas metro housing markets, saying that the state is a good market for Pulte, especially since its acquisition for $1.3 billion in stock of Dallas-based Centex a little over a year ago.
The April 2009 Centex acquisition also gave Pulte large tracts of land in Texas and the Carolinas, two of the most resilient real estate markets, and a presence in 29 states and Washington, D.C. The new company includes the Del Webb and Fox & Jacobs brand homes.
Werth, based in Dallas and president of the Central Texas Division of Pulte, and the third panelist, Will Holder of Trendmaker Homes, both agreed with Inselmann's assessment of the bubble-free Texas market and all three attributed the state's relatively enviable position to low taxes and few restrictions on building. Without the restrictions that are present in markets like Portland, Oregon, for instance, Texas builders weren't forced to impose demand-based home price increases.
At a panel discussion of foreclosures, Jack Schakett of Bank of America, said 80 percent of BofA's clients are current on their mortgage payments, adding that the Charlotte, NC banking giant is working with the 1.4 million who are having trouble doing so.
Irvine, CA-based RealtyTrac Inc. is very familiar to real estate reporters for its monthly foreclosure reports. On the panel with Schakett was Rick Sharga, a senior vice president of RealtyTrac, who said that the foreclosure crisis will continue at least through the fourth quarter of 2010, with a second big wave due when adjustable mortgages reset. Short sales and REO sales will continue to be a factor, but not enough of one to solve the foreclosure problem, Sharga added.
A third panelist, Travis H. Olsen of Loan Resolution Corp. (LRC) , based in Scottsdale, AZ, which uses a proactive to foreclosures, said that, despite efforts of LRC and others, a lot more people will walk away from upside-down loans in the near future. He's in a position to know, being based in one of the ground-zero underwater and foreclosure states, but he noted that all real estate is local, even in the greater Phoenix area where he lives and works.
Opening Day: Grounding Green and A Skyline Perspective
By David M. Kinchen
Freelance Writer and NAREE Past President
The conference's opening speaker, Peter Pfeiffer of Austin-based Barley & Pfeiffer Architects, noted as pioneers in green architecture, pointed out the importance being sensible in introducing eco-friendly elements into a residential project. Carefully situtating a house to take advantage of sun and wind is a elementary step that can deliver more rewards than some of the expensive energy savings measures available in the green marketplace.
Pfeiffer noted, for example, that the active solar system installed on his own house in Austin in 2004 has a 32-year payback, adding that well designed window shading delivers more bang for the buck than a $16,000 solar collector. An $800 pool pump hooked up to the house's heating and air conditioning heat pump saves twice as much energy as that $16,000 solar PV collector. Interconnecting the swimming pool pump to the house's heat pump heats the house in winter and cools it in the summer, Pfeiffer said.
LEED was developed in 1998 by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) to provides building owners and operators a concise framework for identifying and implementing practical and measurable green building design, construction, operations and maintenance solutions.
LEED addresses both commercial and residential building types. It works throughout the building lifecycle – design and construction, operations and maintenance, tenant fitout, and significant retrofit.
Pfeiffer is a LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) accredited design professional who was designing "green" buildings 20 years ago, before there was such a term.
The Austonian
A highlight of Wednesday evening was the tour of The Austonian, a 178-unit high-rise, 56-story building at Second Street and Congress Avenue, the tallest residential building west of the Mississippi River. Units range in price from $559,000 to $8,000,000, with an average price of just over $1.5 million. According to information supplied to those attending the conference, 55 units are in contract as of March 10.
Architect Scott Ziegler of Ziegler Cooper Architects, Houston, and developer Terry Mitchell of Momark Development LLC, outlined the green nature of the high-rise. The building is designed to capture rainwater and occupy a small footprint for such a large building.
The observation deck of The Austonian affords magnificent views of the area, including the state Capitol building and the University of Texas complexes to the north and Lady Bird Lake (formerly called Town Lake) to the south. At 683 feet, the building is the tallest in Austin, overtaking the 360 Condominiums, and is also the tallest all-residential building in the state of Texas and Texas' tallest building outside of Dallas and Houston.
